Dave Farber
2018-10-20 10:35:25 UTC
Date: October 20, 2018 at 7:29:27 PM GMT+9
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
By Ben Sasse
Oct 19 2018
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-scary-news-about-deepfakes/2018/10/19/6238c3ce-d176-11e8-83d6-291fcead2ab1_story.html>
Ben Sasse, a Republican, represents Nebraska in the Senate and is the author of the new book âThem: Why We Hate Each Other and How to Heal,â from which this op-ed was adapted.
Flash forward two years and consider these hypotheticals. Youâre seated at your desk, having taken your second sip of coffee and just beginning to contemplate the breakfast sandwich steaming in the bag in front of you. You click on your favorite news site, one you trust. âUnearthed Video Shows President Conspiring with Putin.â You canât resist.
The video, in ultrahigh definition, shows then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin examining an electoral map of the United States. They are nodding and laughing as they appear to discuss efforts to swing the election to Trump. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump smile wanly in the background. The report notes that Trumpâs movements on the day in question are difficult to pin down.
Alternate scenario: Same day, same coffee and sandwich. This time, the headline reports the discovery of an audio recording of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch brainstorming about how to derail the FBI investigation of Clintonâs use of a private server to handle classified emails. The recordingâs date is unclear, but its quality is perfect; Clinton and Lynch can be heard discussing the attorney generalâs airport tarmac meeting with former president Bill Clinton in Phoenix on June 27, 2016.
The recordings in these hypothetical scenarios are fake â but who are you going to believe? Who will your neighbors believe? The government? A news outlet you distrust?
If you thought the fight over Brett M. Kavanaughâs Supreme Court confirmation couldnât have been more horrible, buckle your seat belts. Imagine how the public divisions would have deepened had there been fake-but-plausible video of an undergraduate Kavanaugh partying hard at Yale, or fake-but-plausible audio of Senate Democratic Leader Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) huddling on strategy calls with lawyers for Kavanaughâs accusers.
Deepfakes â seemingly authentic video or audio recordings that can spread like wildfire online â are likely to send American politics into a tailspin, and Washington isnât paying nearly enough attention to the very real danger thatâs right around the corner.
Consider: In December 2017, an amateur coder named âDeepFakesâ was altering porn videos by digitally substituting the faces of female celebrities for the porn starsâ. Not much of a hobby, but it was effective enough to prompt news coverage. Since then, the technology has improved and is readily available. The word deepfake has become a generic noun for the use of machine-learning algorithms and facial-mapping technology to digitally manipulate peopleâs voices, bodies and faces. And the technology is increasingly so realistic that the deepfakes are almost impossible to detect.
Creepy, right? Now imagine what will happen when Americaâs enemies use this technology for less sleazy but more strategically sinister purposes.
I spoke recently with one of the most senior U.S. intelligence officials, who told me that many leaders in his community think weâre on the verge of a deepfakes âperfect storm.â The storm has three critical ingredients: First, this new technology is staggering in its disruptive potential yet relatively simple and cheap to produce. Second, our enemies are eager to undermine us. With the collapse of the Russian economy, Putin is trying to maintain unity at home by finding a common enemy abroad. He has little to lose and lots to gain â itâs far easier to weaken U.S. domestic support for NATO than to actually fight NATO head-on. Russia hasnât mastered these information operations yet, but China is running scout-team offense behind every play. China will eventually be incredibly good at this, and we are not ready.
[snip]
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-------------------------------------------Subject: [Dewayne-Net] This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
By Ben Sasse
Oct 19 2018
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-scary-news-about-deepfakes/2018/10/19/6238c3ce-d176-11e8-83d6-291fcead2ab1_story.html>
Ben Sasse, a Republican, represents Nebraska in the Senate and is the author of the new book âThem: Why We Hate Each Other and How to Heal,â from which this op-ed was adapted.
Flash forward two years and consider these hypotheticals. Youâre seated at your desk, having taken your second sip of coffee and just beginning to contemplate the breakfast sandwich steaming in the bag in front of you. You click on your favorite news site, one you trust. âUnearthed Video Shows President Conspiring with Putin.â You canât resist.
The video, in ultrahigh definition, shows then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin examining an electoral map of the United States. They are nodding and laughing as they appear to discuss efforts to swing the election to Trump. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump smile wanly in the background. The report notes that Trumpâs movements on the day in question are difficult to pin down.
Alternate scenario: Same day, same coffee and sandwich. This time, the headline reports the discovery of an audio recording of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch brainstorming about how to derail the FBI investigation of Clintonâs use of a private server to handle classified emails. The recordingâs date is unclear, but its quality is perfect; Clinton and Lynch can be heard discussing the attorney generalâs airport tarmac meeting with former president Bill Clinton in Phoenix on June 27, 2016.
The recordings in these hypothetical scenarios are fake â but who are you going to believe? Who will your neighbors believe? The government? A news outlet you distrust?
If you thought the fight over Brett M. Kavanaughâs Supreme Court confirmation couldnât have been more horrible, buckle your seat belts. Imagine how the public divisions would have deepened had there been fake-but-plausible video of an undergraduate Kavanaugh partying hard at Yale, or fake-but-plausible audio of Senate Democratic Leader Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) huddling on strategy calls with lawyers for Kavanaughâs accusers.
Deepfakes â seemingly authentic video or audio recordings that can spread like wildfire online â are likely to send American politics into a tailspin, and Washington isnât paying nearly enough attention to the very real danger thatâs right around the corner.
Consider: In December 2017, an amateur coder named âDeepFakesâ was altering porn videos by digitally substituting the faces of female celebrities for the porn starsâ. Not much of a hobby, but it was effective enough to prompt news coverage. Since then, the technology has improved and is readily available. The word deepfake has become a generic noun for the use of machine-learning algorithms and facial-mapping technology to digitally manipulate peopleâs voices, bodies and faces. And the technology is increasingly so realistic that the deepfakes are almost impossible to detect.
Creepy, right? Now imagine what will happen when Americaâs enemies use this technology for less sleazy but more strategically sinister purposes.
I spoke recently with one of the most senior U.S. intelligence officials, who told me that many leaders in his community think weâre on the verge of a deepfakes âperfect storm.â The storm has three critical ingredients: First, this new technology is staggering in its disruptive potential yet relatively simple and cheap to produce. Second, our enemies are eager to undermine us. With the collapse of the Russian economy, Putin is trying to maintain unity at home by finding a common enemy abroad. He has little to lose and lots to gain â itâs far easier to weaken U.S. domestic support for NATO than to actually fight NATO head-on. Russia hasnât mastered these information operations yet, but China is running scout-team offense behind every play. China will eventually be incredibly good at this, and we are not ready.
[snip]
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